Project Summary

RegClim Phase II is a prolongation of the RegClim project as described in the project description of Iversen et al.(1997) and the project descriptions of "RegClim Fase II - Extension of December 1998" and "RegClim Fase II - Extension of May 2000". Several amendments are introduced in the present project description, but none involving additional costs, except for adjusted prices per person-year.

There are two overall aims of the project. The first is to estimate probable changes in the regional climate in Northern Europe, bordering sea areas and major parts of the Arctic ("our region"), given a global climate change. The second is to quantify, as far as possible, uncertainties in these estimates, inter alia, by investigating the significance of regional scale climate forcings pertaining specifically to our region. This includes processes determining sea-surface-temperature (SST) and modest sea ice cover in the Nordic Seas, and processes related to radiatively active atmospheric contaminants with a regional distribution (direct and indirect aerosol effects, and tropospheric ozone).

Climate in this connection encompasses the statistical properties of the elements air temperature, precipitation amount, wind at 10m, and sea-state (wave-height and sea level). Climate scenarios of these parameters in our region will include estimates of typical seasonal variations, typical variations from year to year, and probable changes in severe weather conditions as defined by high wind speeds, large precipitation amounts and extreme sea-state. We also aim at first estimates of the role of inter-decadal variations by choosing situations with different modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

The project is organized in nine Principal Tasks, each with a major objective that contributes significantly to the overall aims of the project.